Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 24.966869 26.502382 28.137428 30.017464 32.131510 34.449661 37.203987
2025-12-21 22.926885 24.987076 27.289340 30.083422 33.426164 37.356070 42.419790
2025-12-28 21.845688 24.230551 26.984414 30.456287 34.803932 40.198606 47.629485
2026-01-04 20.552644 23.071169 26.045994 29.899229 34.888591 41.339092 50.711147
2026-01-11 20.021939 22.752049 26.053042 30.452558 36.359887 44.357771 56.730743
2026-01-18 19.447072 22.321694 25.865393 30.703929 37.409135 46.872164 62.406005
2026-01-25 18.638204 21.542555 25.171666 30.212616 37.360189 47.765033 65.651101
2026-02-01 17.889039 20.796194 24.470019 29.647612 37.134771 48.334719 68.412035
2026-02-08 16.968025 19.787858 23.373503 28.467636 35.915913 47.232167 68.022409
2026-02-15 16.780858 19.718054 23.509110 29.001562 37.254337 50.294107 75.837384
2026-02-22 16.525720 19.543603 23.488963 29.303140 38.253358 52.910427 83.441962
2026-03-01 15.989353 18.973890 22.902337 28.744896 37.858460 53.083990 85.948984
2026-03-08 15.166260 18.056029 21.884720 27.629639 36.707397 52.176541 86.802176
2026-03-15 14.774480 17.706039 21.642070 27.656528 37.419470 54.774471 96.900565
2026-03-22 14.517090 17.520026 21.609662 27.983645 38.644077 58.537802 111.895631
2026-03-29 14.036957 17.005792 21.080795 27.502395 38.426239 59.398641 119.253629
2026-04-05 13.873649 16.921423 21.162902 27.979494 39.937866 64.149499 142.437549
2026-04-12 13.648888 16.739244 21.089156 28.195772 40.995117 68.160180 167.371706
2026-04-19 13.267793 16.320639 20.644496 27.772788 40.801593 69.214491 181.141588
2026-04-26 12.893302 15.899033 20.177981 27.285406 40.437341 69.791386 193.604738
2026-05-03 12.399737 15.293459 19.414664 26.264265 38.951931 67.324122 187.694488
2026-05-10 12.312699 15.269170 19.527971 26.726873 40.443120 72.838699 237.055495
2026-05-17 12.179560 15.172503 19.524954 26.987764 41.556231 77.689227 297.709421